Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Charlotte Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actuallyt high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economh grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’sw Marty Regalia. He predicted that the curren t economic downturn will end arounrd September but that the unemployment rate will remaib high through the first half ofnext year. Investmenty won’t snap back as quickly as it usuallu does aftera recession, Regalia said.
however, looms as a potential problem because of thefederap government’s huge budget deficits and the massivd amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwound once the economy begins to higher interest rates could choke off improvement in the housintg market and business investment, he “The economy has got to be runniny on its own by the middle of next Regalia said. Almost every major inflationary perioein U.S. history was preceded by heavy debt levels, he The chances of a double-dip recessiomn will be lower if Ben Bernankr is reappointed chairman of the Federal Regalia said.
If President Obama appoints hiseconomix adviser, Larry Summers, to chair the Fed, that woule signal the monetary spigot would remain open for a longee time, he said. A coalescinb of the Fed and the Obamaq administrationis “not something the marketsx want to see,” Regalia said. Obamaq has declined to say whether he willreappointr Bernanke, whose term ends in Meanwhile, more than half of smallo business owners expect the recession to last at leasty another two years, according to a survet of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect their own busines s to grow in the next12 months.
“Small business ownersd are bullish on their own abilitiesa but bearish on the factorsthey can’ t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketinh for . “Even in the gloomiesr economy, there are opportunities to seize.” A separate survey of small business owners by foun that 57 percent thoughgt the economy wasgetting worse, whilde 26 percent thought the economy was improving. More than half planne to decrease spending on business development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Web site.