Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - South Florida Business Journal:

exceeding-commissioner.blogspot.com
The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local governmengt layoffsare beginning, the Businesx Forecasting Center at the said in its latesr California and Metro Forecast released The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percengt early next year, and will remain in double-digitd until the end of 2011. The center produced quarterly economic forecasts of the United California and ninemetro areas, from Sacramentk to Fresno and the San Francisco Bay In the Sacramento area, unemployment will rise from 11.1 percen this year to peak at 11.4 percent next before dipping to 10.2 percent in the report said.
Unemployment is expecte to reach 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecastt to rebound in the third quarter of next when job growth will improveto 0.8 percent. A “strontg rebound is expected to take placee in professionaland business, and educationao and health services sectors,” the report said of “Job growth is expectefd to have its first positive full year at 2.0 percentf in 2011.” Sacramento’s real personap income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percenty next year.
San Jose and San Francisco will be the firs metro areas in Northern California to return totheir pre-recessiom employment levels, in the second and thired quarters of 2012, respectively, the study Sacramento and Merced will be among the last northu state metro areas to regain peak in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallejo is last, with a return expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Centrak Valley will be hard hit by the combination of recentt state tax increases and massive expectedbudgeft cuts, the Business Forecastingg Center said.
“The state budget crisies is a dangerous aftershock to a region still reelinf from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff director of the Business Forecasting said in a news release. The Central Valley is an economic disaster but most ofits “economic shocks are cyclical in naturs rather than permanent changes such as closed militaryh bases,” the news release • Construction continues to lead job losses in percentagee terms, declining another 15 percent to 110,00 0 in 2009. • Manufacturinbg will lead the decline in losing 135,000 jobs this year. • Retail sales will not return to theit 2007 leveluntil 2011. New car and truck sales will fallbelows 1.
06 million in 2009, after exceeding 2 million for most of the Sales will gradually increase as the economu recovers, reaching 1.46 million next year, and 1.73 million in 2011. Housing starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,000 more than 80 percent below the levelsz seen in 2004 and 2005. Housing startzs will be back to 100,000 units in 2011, and exceed 150,000 by 2013. • Healtu care is the only sector that will not shrink this The gainof 13,000 health care or 0.9 percent, is the slowest growtbh this decade. • Personal income declinee 0.8 percent in 2009. • Nonfarmm payrolls will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewidee during the two-year recession.
• The California economhy will finally hit bottom in the fourth quarter ofthis year, and will begin a slow, multi-yearf recovery. It will be 2013 before many key economidc indicators such as unemployment return tohealthy levels. The state’s recession should end in the last quarted ofthis year, but the job market will remai weak through most of next year.