End of recession may be in sight - New Mexico Business Weekly:

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percentage points in May to 85, basedc on a 1997 benchmark of 100. The relative stability in the UO Indedx over the past three monthz is consistent with a patternb ofeconomic stabilization, but fallas short of a turn that wouldf conclusively mark the end of the said Tim Duy, director of the Oregob Economic Forum and a UO adjuncr assistant professor, in a Oregon labor market data continue to be mixed. Initial joblesx claims edged downward slightly, but remaij at a level that suggests furtherr declines innonfarm payrolls. Still, initiaol claims remain well below the peak of Decembeer as the pace of economic deterioration hasslower markedly.
Employment services payroll — largely temporar help agencies — fell in May, but, importantly, the rate of declins is slowing, Duy said. Nonfarm payrolls (not included in the fell by just 100 jobsduring May, an abrupgt slowing compared to the recent declines. It is difficult to see a substantiapl improvement in thejobs picture, however, with initia l claims remaining at high levels, Duy The unemployment rate rose to 12.4 Residential housing permits continued to decline, falling to just 627.
The typical seasonalo boost in building activity islargely absent, a testament to persistent weakness in the housing Builders are finding it difficult to compete in an environmentf of rising foreclosures and tighter underwriting conditions for home Duy said. The Oregon weight-distance tax reversed gains seen the previous In contrast, new orders for nondefense nonaircraft capital goods, adjusted for rose in May to the highesty level since December 2008. Despite the low levels, the relative stabilitt since the beginning of the year is a hopeful sign that the worsft declines in business spending arebehinxd us, Duy said. U.S.
consumer confidence rose againin May, a furtherr indication that consumer spending has he added. The Oregon economy likely remainecd in recessionin May. That said, the pace of deterioration has The six-month annualized change in the index improveds significantly over the past two from -11.8 percent in Marc h to -8 percent in May. Similar improvement signalede an impending end to the 2001 and would be consisten with the prediction that economic growtjh would firm in the second halfof 2009. Duy said, caution is warranted.
The UO Index has not yet turnedf upward, and the six-month change remains well below ratee normally consistent witheconomic expansions, and more than half of the indexd components remain below six-month ago levels. there is a strong possibility ofa “joblesds recovery” as the economy continues to face structura adjustment issues that limit the pace of